Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 65.3% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.6% vs Seguin 52.5% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Staal 55.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 65.5%
Neutral zone
Staal 63.3%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Staal
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Staal
Seguin
Last 9: Staal 6-3 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
1
2
Staal
Seguin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Seguin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
4
1
Staal
Seguin
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (955)
53.2% (201)
+2.9%
Power Play
66.9% (142)
60.0% (25)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (242)
44.4% (9)
-1.4%
On power play, Staal has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Staal shoots left. Seguin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (187).
Home / Away
Staal
Seguin
Home
55.4% (663)
56.3% (126)
Away
54.4% (676)
50.5% (109)
By Period
Staal
Seguin
P1
55.1%
44.3%
P2
54.7%
52.1%
P3
53.9%
62.5%
OT
70.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
57.2%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:11 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:06 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:13 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:49 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |