Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 55.3%). Look for Karlsson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 55.3% vs Karlsson 54.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Karlsson 55.7%
Defensive zone
Staal 59.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 51.0%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Staal
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
12
(21 meetings)
9
12
Staal
Karlsson
Last 10: Staal 5-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
3
4
Staal
Karlsson
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
2
4
Staal
Karlsson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Staal
Karlsson
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,115)
55.3% (897)
+1.0%
Power Play
61.2% (67)
61.1% (113)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (292)
50.8% (132)
+1.3%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (946).
Staal shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Staal
Karlsson
Home
58.3% (705)
58.6% (560)
Away
53.3% (769)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Staal
Karlsson
P1
54.5%
55.8%
P2
58.2%
55.6%
P3
54.1%
55.7%
OT
60.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.9%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.7%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:57 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 12:14 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:45 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 17:03 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:48 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 19:55 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 10:50 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 10:20 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 18:01 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 15:35 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 15:22 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 12:44 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 12:28 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 08:46 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 05:56 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 03:55 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |