Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Staal wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.2% vs Karlsson 57.1% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 90.3%
Defensive zone
Karlsson 64.0%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 69.7%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 67.3%
32.7%
67.3%
Staal
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Staal
Karlsson
Last 7: Staal 6-1 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
3
0
Staal
Karlsson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
3
1
Staal
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (1,017)
58.6% (597)
-1.6%
Power Play
57.7% (26)
57.9% (57)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
45.1% (286)
51.9% (52)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, Karlsson has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Staal is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (988).
Staal shoots left. Karlsson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Staal
Karlsson
Home
54.3% (667)
59.6% (344)
Away
54.7% (662)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Staal
Karlsson
P1
56.2%
53.1%
P2
57.0%
62.1%
P3
49.7%
60.1%
OT
68.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.8%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.5%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2025 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 16:02 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 13:52 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:22 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:16 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 11, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |