Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Norris wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 53.4% vs Sturm 57.1% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 50.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 62.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 64.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Norris
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Norris
Sturm
Last 5: Norris 3-2 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
0
Norris
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Norris
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (560)
62.1% (356)
-8.5%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
75.0% (4)
-19.0%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (98)
38.7% (62)
+14.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Norris is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (471).
Norris shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Norris
Sturm
Home
53.6% (373)
61.8% (191)
Away
54.1% (394)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Norris
Sturm
P1
61.8%
58.0%
P2
51.7%
57.9%
P3
49.8%
60.6%
Final 5 min
55.7%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:41 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:08 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:36 | Offensive | Josh Norris |