Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 52.1% vs Sturm 56.1% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 81.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 56.5%
Neutral zone
Norris 61.0%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Norris
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Norris
Sturm
Last 8: Norris 3-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
0
Norris
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Norris
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Norris
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,057)
57.1% (2,719)
-4.6%
Power Play
53.7% (404)
61.3% (62)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
45.4% (240)
51.0% (498)
-5.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Norris is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,392).
Norris shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Norris
Sturm
Home
53.1% (1,856)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
51.2% (1,845)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Norris
Sturm
P1
55.6%
56.5%
P2
51.4%
54.9%
P3
50.1%
57.4%
OT
40.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
53.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
52.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:17 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 08:41 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 14:08 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:36 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 11:33 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 3 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2021 | 2 | 10:10 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |