Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.8% vs 50.7%). Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Danforth wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 49.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Danforth leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Danforth 78.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 77.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 56.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Danforth
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Danforth
Dowd
Last 9: Danforth 3-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
3
1
Danforth
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
5
Danforth
Dowd
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
3
1
Danforth
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (1,018)
52.4% (6,009)
-0.6%
Power Play
50.0% (36)
56.1% (164)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (207)
44.1% (1,635)
-4.0%
On power play, Dowd has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Danforth is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Danforth shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Danforth
Dowd
Home
51.4% (619)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
48.3% (642)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Danforth
Dowd
P1
49.1%
51.7%
P2
51.4%
50.4%
P3
48.3%
50.3%
OT
64.3%
45.9%
Final 5 min
52.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | 3 | 09:16 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 05:41 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 01:07 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 1 | 13:02 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 16:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 03:17 | Offensive | Justin Danforth |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |