Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Danforth on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 49.8% vs Novak 43.3% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Danforth 50.3%
Defensive zone
Danforth 93.3%
Neutral zone
Danforth 80.7%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 75.6%
75.6%
24.4%
Danforth
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Danforth
Novak
Last 7: Danforth 5-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Danforth
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
2
0
Danforth
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
3
0
Danforth
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (1,018)
42.1% (1,539)
+9.7%
Power Play
50.0% (36)
51.9% (133)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (207)
50.0% (2)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Danforth is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (937).
Danforth shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Danforth
Novak
Home
51.4% (619)
45.3% (814)
Away
48.3% (642)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Danforth
Novak
P1
49.1%
43.9%
P2
51.4%
42.8%
P3
48.3%
41.7%
OT
64.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
52.3%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 02:25 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:18 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:52 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 02:20 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 02:04 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |