Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 49.5% vs Novak 45.0% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 73.9%
Defensive zone
Danforth 73.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 52.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Danforth
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Danforth
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Danforth
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
0
Danforth
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (546)
42.9% (198)
+7.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
40.9% (22)
+9.1%
On power play, Danforth has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Danforth is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (488).
Danforth shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (94).
Home / Away
Danforth
Novak
Home
51.1% (315)
40.9% (110)
Away
48.0% (346)
44.5% (110)
By Period
Danforth
Novak
P1
49.5%
39.1%
P2
51.4%
43.9%
P3
46.6%
44.9%
OT
100.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.4%
25.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
49.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 02:25 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 07:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |