Scouting Report
Justin Danforth holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Danforth on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danforth 48.8% vs Novak 43.5% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Danforth 55.7%
Defensive zone
Danforth 92.3%
Neutral zone
Danforth 81.8%
Result
Justin Danforth favored at 78.7%
78.7%
21.3%
Danforth
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Danforth
Novak
Last 5: Danforth 4-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Danforth
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danforth
1
0
Danforth
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danforth
3
0
Danforth
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danforth
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (281)
40.7% (460)
+10.5%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
61.5% (39)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (67)
0.0% (1)
+35.8%
On penalty kill, Danforth has a +35.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Danforth is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (262).
Danforth shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Danforth
Novak
Home
52.0% (196)
47.0% (236)
Away
44.1% (161)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Danforth
Novak
P1
48.2%
43.1%
P2
52.8%
43.1%
P3
42.2%
40.1%
Final 5 min
48.5%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danforth
54.0%▲
51.5%
48.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:18 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:52 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 02:20 | Defensive | Justin Danforth |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 02:04 | Neutral | Justin Danforth |