Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Barkov wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 53.5% vs Hayes 49.3% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 9-4 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 68.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 69.6%
Neutral zone
Hayes 66.7%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 68.3%
31.7%
68.3%
Barkov
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
9
(13 meetings)
4
9
Barkov
Hayes
Last 10: Barkov 3-7 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Barkov
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
5
Barkov
Hayes
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Barkov
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (1,377)
50.5% (764)
+4.0%
Power Play
54.7% (340)
53.3% (90)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (222)
38.6% (127)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Barkov has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Barkov is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,222).
Barkov shoots left. Hayes is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (648).
Home / Away
Barkov
Hayes
Home
54.5% (948)
49.0% (531)
Away
52.9% (991)
49.6% (450)
By Period
Barkov
Hayes
P1
55.2%
52.3%
P2
54.2%
45.8%
P3
52.3%
50.2%
OT
43.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
53.7%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 17:45 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 03:57 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 00:11 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:24 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:19 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 19:11 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 06:11 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 17, 2018 | 1 | 04:50 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 23, 2018 | 1 | 13:17 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |