Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 47.1% vs Hayes 46.1% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 89.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 68.6%
Neutral zone
Matthews 67.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Matthews
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Matthews
Hayes
Last 7: Matthews 5-2 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
2
Matthews
Hayes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (1,000)
45.4% (788)
+0.8%
Power Play
53.6% (125)
50.0% (56)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (7)
45.2% (124)
-30.9%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +30.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Matthews is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (683).
Matthews shoots left. Hayes is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Matthews
Hayes
Home
48.4% (562)
46.6% (459)
Away
45.3% (570)
44.8% (509)
By Period
Matthews
Hayes
P1
51.3%
43.0%
P2
44.5%
49.5%
P3
44.6%
44.7%
OT
55.6%
28.6%
Final 5 min
47.9%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
46.8%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2017 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 19, 2017 | 1 | 04:12 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2017 | 1 | 07:56 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 13, 2017 | 1 | 06:05 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 13, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |