Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Hughes wins 31.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.4% vs Hayes 49.1% (-13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 58.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 65.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 59.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Hughes
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Hughes
Hayes
Last 8: Hughes 4-4 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Hayes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
3
Hughes
Hayes
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
35.7% (569)
48.7% (394)
-13.0%
Power Play
33.3% (36)
61.2% (49)
-27.9%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
34.3% (35)
-17.6%
On power play, Hayes has a +27.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Hughes is 31.1% vs left-shot opponents (305).
Hughes shoots left. Hayes is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Hughes
Hayes
Home
37.8% (333)
50.6% (237)
Away
32.4% (278)
47.3% (241)
By Period
Hughes
Hayes
P1
38.8%
43.9%
P2
28.3%
47.3%
P3
38.6%
55.9%
OT
42.9%
75.0%
Final 5 min
31.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.4%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2021 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 09:47 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 09:41 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 25, 2021 | 3 | 18:56 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 25, 2021 | 3 | 13:22 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 2 | 08:29 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |