Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.0% vs 56.9%). Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Draisaitl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Draisaitl 56.5% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Draisaitl 76.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 56.8%
Neutral zone
Draisaitl 60.4%
Result
Leon Draisaitl favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Hayes
Draisaitl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Hayes
Draisaitl
Last 6: Hayes 4-2 Draisaitl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Draisaitl
0
2
Hayes
Draisaitl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
0
Hayes
Draisaitl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Draisaitl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Draisaitl
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
57.4% (1,010)
-0.8%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
56.2% (331)
+0.8%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
54.5% (110)
+11.2%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Draisaitl shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. Draisaitl is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (894).
Home / Away
Hayes
Draisaitl
Home
58.0% (405)
56.4% (734)
Away
56.1% (433)
57.5% (717)
By Period
Hayes
Draisaitl
P1
54.7%
55.6%
P2
55.7%
62.1%
P3
60.2%
52.4%
OT
50.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
58.9%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Draisaitl
62.0%▬
61.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 3 | 04:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:57 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 3 | 03:49 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 28, 2024 | 1 | 19:55 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:32 | Offensive | Leon Draisaitl |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |