Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 46.8%). Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 20 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Scheifele 46.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 24-22 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 65.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 65.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 52.7%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Hayes
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
22
(46 meetings)
24
22
Hayes
Scheifele
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
6
14
Hayes
Scheifele
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
12
4
Hayes
Scheifele
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
6
4
Hayes
Scheifele
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
46.3% (12,036)
+1.2%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
50.2% (2,563)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
41.6% (598)
+3.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,821).
Home / Away
Hayes
Scheifele
Home
48.1% (3,982)
48.9% (7,644)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
44.7% (7,554)
By Period
Hayes
Scheifele
P1
47.5%
48.2%
P2
47.6%
45.6%
P3
47.9%
46.8%
OT
54.1%
42.5%
Final 5 min
49.3%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 16:37 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 22, 2023 | 2 | 09:21 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 2 | 14:50 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 3 | 02:19 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 2 | 07:50 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 2 | 04:35 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 1 | 05:31 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 3 | 13:03 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |