Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Scheifele 48.3% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Scheifele 53.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 88.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 78.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Hayes
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hayes
Scheifele
Last 5: Hayes 4-1 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Scheifele
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Scheifele
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Scheifele
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
48.1% (1,045)
+8.5%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
48.6% (181)
+8.4%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
44.4% (27)
+21.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Scheifele is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (892).
Home / Away
Hayes
Scheifele
Home
58.0% (405)
52.7% (630)
Away
56.1% (433)
43.5% (623)
By Period
Hayes
Scheifele
P1
54.7%
50.3%
P2
55.7%
46.8%
P3
60.2%
47.5%
OT
50.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
58.9%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:16 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:50 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 16:37 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |