Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +16.2% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 39.7% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs Duchene 51.6% (-16.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 66.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 63.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 57.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Hayes
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayes
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Hayes
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
51.2% (324)
-19.3%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
60.4% (53)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
16.7% (6)
-16.7%
On even strength, Duchene has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayes is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Hayes shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Hayes
Duchene
Home
30.6% (49)
51.6% (182)
Away
40.4% (57)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Hayes
Duchene
P1
22.9%
49.6%
P2
40.0%
56.2%
P3
44.4%
48.6%
Final 5 min
30.4%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |