Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Duchene 54.1% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 30-26 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 61.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 63.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 61.2%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Hayes
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
30
(56 meetings)
26
30
Hayes
Duchene
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
5
19
Hayes
Duchene
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
13
3
Hayes
Duchene
16 total
Neutral Zone
Even
8
8
Hayes
Duchene
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
53.9% (10,396)
-6.4%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
56.9% (1,665)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
49.1% (468)
-3.8%
On even strength, Duchene has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Hayes shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Hayes
Duchene
Home
48.1% (3,982)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Hayes
Duchene
P1
47.5%
54.5%
P2
47.6%
54.5%
P3
47.9%
53.4%
OT
54.1%
56.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 01:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 05:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 17:18 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 13:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:45 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 27, 2022 | 3 | 17:48 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |