Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 49.5% vs Duchene 52.1% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 62.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 64.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 58.1%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Hayes
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayes
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Hayes
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (557)
53.9% (193)
-5.4%
Power Play
53.3% (107)
49.2% (65)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
100.0% (1)
-41.7%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Hayes shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Hayes
Duchene
Home
50.8% (313)
54.9% (113)
Away
48.2% (363)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Hayes
Duchene
P1
52.3%
54.9%
P2
47.7%
52.7%
P3
48.4%
51.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:45 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |