Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.0% vs 56.5%). Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Duchene 55.6% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 58.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 68.2%
Neutral zone
Duchene 53.7%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Hayes
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Hayes
Duchene
Last 10: Hayes 7-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
4
Hayes
Duchene
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
2
Hayes
Duchene
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
0
Hayes
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
56.5% (566)
+0.1%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
61.3% (62)
-4.3%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
22.2% (9)
+43.5%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +43.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Hayes
Duchene
Home
58.0% (405)
56.6% (318)
Away
56.1% (433)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Hayes
Duchene
P1
54.7%
57.2%
P2
55.7%
55.1%
P3
60.2%
55.6%
OT
50.0%
81.3%
Final 5 min
58.9%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 01:34 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:03 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 12:59 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 05:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 17:18 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:02 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 13:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 04:39 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |