Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 46.1% vs Duchene 61.5% (-16.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 67.3%
Defensive zone
Hayes 71.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 76.5%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 72.4%
72.4%
27.6%
Hayes
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Hayes
Duchene
Last 8: Hayes 2-6 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Hayes
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Hayes
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Hayes
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (788)
62.2% (802)
-16.8%
Power Play
50.0% (56)
67.3% (153)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (124)
59.4% (143)
-14.2%
On power play, Duchene has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Hayes is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Hayes shoots left. Duchene is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Hayes
Duchene
Home
46.6% (459)
66.5% (555)
Away
44.8% (509)
58.6% (543)
By Period
Hayes
Duchene
P1
43.0%
63.2%
P2
49.5%
59.6%
P3
44.7%
65.0%
OT
28.6%
71.4%
Final 5 min
44.0%
65.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
45.7%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
62.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2017 | 3 | 19:41 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 3 | 19:36 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 3 | 19:24 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 3 | 09:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 3 | 09:34 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 2 | 16:59 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 2 | 08:24 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 31, 2016 | 1 | 14:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |