Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs McCarron 52.8% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 54.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 67.7%
Neutral zone
McCarron 55.9%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 56.1%
43.9%
56.1%
Hayes
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Hayes
McCarron
Last 7: Hayes 3-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
1
Hayes
McCarron
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
3
Hayes
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
54.5% (618)
+2.1%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
42.1% (19)
+14.9%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
35.3% (34)
+30.4%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. McCarron is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Home / Away
Hayes
McCarron
Home
58.0% (405)
52.2% (339)
Away
56.1% (433)
54.2% (332)
By Period
Hayes
McCarron
P1
54.7%
53.5%
P2
55.7%
50.6%
P3
60.2%
55.9%
Final 5 min
58.9%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2024 | 3 | 18:16 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 19:05 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 16:31 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 02:06 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |