Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs McCarron 54.0% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 82.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 78.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 50.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Hayes
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayes
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
McCarron
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
54.2% (756)
-2.6%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
55.6% (9)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
55.1% (158)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Hayes shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Hayes
McCarron
Home
50.5% (200)
54.6% (445)
Away
53.4% (253)
54.2% (478)
By Period
Hayes
McCarron
P1
58.8%
53.6%
P2
49.3%
55.6%
P3
48.0%
53.7%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |