Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.2% vs 49.8%). Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 50.2% vs Foligno 49.9% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 65.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 64.7%
Neutral zone
Foligno 54.3%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Hayes
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Hayes
Foligno
Last 8: Hayes 5-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
0
Hayes
Foligno
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
Hayes
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (672)
47.0% (202)
+4.3%
Power Play
50.0% (78)
57.9% (95)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (76)
40.9% (22)
-0.1%
On power play, Foligno has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Hayes is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Hayes shoots left. Foligno is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Hayes
Foligno
Home
52.0% (404)
50.6% (162)
Away
48.6% (422)
49.0% (157)
By Period
Hayes
Foligno
P1
50.7%
48.9%
P2
50.2%
47.8%
P3
49.8%
53.8%
OT
50.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
52.9%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.2%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2020 | OT | 03:17 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 20, 2020 | OT | 01:05 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 11:32 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 2 | 06:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 26, 2019 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 26, 2019 | 3 | 09:57 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 26, 2019 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 26, 2019 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |