Scouting Report
Nick Schmaltz holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 32.6% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 44.1% vs Schmaltz 47.1% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 76.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 59.5%
Neutral zone
Hayes 55.7%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Hayes
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayes
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
1
Hayes
Schmaltz
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
33.3% (81)
46.5% (484)
-13.2%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
47.5% (99)
+16.8%
On power play, Hayes has a +16.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Hayes is 32.6% vs right-shot opponents (43).
Hayes shoots left. Schmaltz is 42.3% vs left-shot opponents (421).
Home / Away
Hayes
Schmaltz
Home
30.6% (49)
45.3% (298)
Away
45.7% (46)
48.0% (300)
By Period
Hayes
Schmaltz
P1
24.2%
40.4%
P2
43.8%
46.8%
P3
46.7%
53.4%
Final 5 min
31.8%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
37.9%
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |