Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Schmaltz 42.5% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 15-8 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 54.9%
Defensive zone
Hayes 90.0%
Neutral zone
Hayes 79.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Hayes
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
8
(23 meetings)
15
8
Hayes
Schmaltz
Last 10: Hayes 8-2 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
4
5
Hayes
Schmaltz
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
7
2
Hayes
Schmaltz
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
1
Hayes
Schmaltz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
41.2% (3,399)
+6.3%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
47.1% (649)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
47.8% (134)
-2.5%
On even strength, Hayes has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Home / Away
Hayes
Schmaltz
Home
48.1% (3,982)
42.7% (2,089)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
41.9% (2,093)
By Period
Hayes
Schmaltz
P1
47.5%
41.1%
P2
47.6%
42.9%
P3
47.9%
43.0%
OT
54.1%
42.4%
Final 5 min
49.3%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 18:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 14, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 04:53 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 11:58 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 1 | 19:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 06:12 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 14, 2018 | 2 | 11:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 3 | 19:55 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 3 | 19:44 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 3 | 01:07 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 3, 2018 | 1 | 14:37 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 15, 2017 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |