Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs Sturm 52.5% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 74.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 60.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 54.5%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Hayes
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Hayes
Sturm
Last 5: Hayes 2-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Hayes
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
54.0% (480)
-11.3%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
28.6% (7)
+14.3%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (31)
50.0% (102)
-4.8%
On power play, Hayes has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Hayes is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (388).
Hayes shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Hayes
Sturm
Home
43.5% (232)
54.0% (287)
Away
42.4% (375)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Hayes
Sturm
P1
40.1%
53.5%
P2
44.8%
51.0%
P3
42.4%
55.1%
OT
80.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 12:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 03:42 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |