Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Sturm 56.1% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 75.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 67.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 50.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Hayes
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Hayes
Sturm
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
4
Hayes
Sturm
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
4
Hayes
Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
1
Hayes
Sturm
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
57.1% (2,719)
-9.6%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
61.3% (62)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
51.0% (498)
-5.7%
On even strength, Sturm has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Hayes shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Hayes
Sturm
Home
48.1% (3,982)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Hayes
Sturm
P1
47.5%
56.5%
P2
47.6%
54.9%
P3
47.9%
57.4%
OT
54.1%
60.6%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 19:26 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 19:35 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:53 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:19 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 10:09 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 18:51 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 14:44 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:57 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 05:20 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 12:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 03:42 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 2 | 01:45 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |