Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Sturm 57.1% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 56.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 83.0%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Hayes
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hayes
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
0
Hayes
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
62.1% (356)
-10.5%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
75.0% (4)
-21.8%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
38.7% (62)
+21.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Hayes shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Home / Away
Hayes
Sturm
Home
50.5% (200)
61.8% (191)
Away
53.4% (253)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Hayes
Sturm
P1
58.8%
58.0%
P2
49.3%
57.9%
P3
48.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 15:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |