Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 49.5% vs Sturm 55.2% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 52.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 93.8%
Neutral zone
Sturm 72.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Hayes
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hayes
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
0
Hayes
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (557)
56.1% (716)
-7.6%
Power Play
53.3% (107)
67.7% (31)
-14.4%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
51.1% (133)
+7.2%
On power play, Sturm has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Hayes shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Hayes
Sturm
Home
50.8% (313)
55.6% (412)
Away
48.2% (363)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Hayes
Sturm
P1
52.3%
59.6%
P2
47.7%
52.0%
P3
48.4%
55.5%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 05:57 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 2 | 05:20 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |