Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +16.4% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 31.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs Roy 51.9% (-16.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 55.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 90.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 65.2%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 90.2%
9.8%
90.2%
Hayes
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Hayes
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
51.9% (547)
-20.0%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
54.1% (37)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
53.3% (92)
-53.3%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Hayes is 31.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Hayes shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Hayes
Roy
Home
30.6% (49)
54.0% (328)
Away
40.4% (57)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Hayes
Roy
P1
22.9%
53.5%
P2
40.0%
51.6%
P3
44.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
30.4%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |