Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Roy 47.9% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 58.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 70.1%
Neutral zone
Roy 58.7%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Hayes
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Hayes
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Hayes
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
2
Hayes
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
48.6% (679)
+3.0%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
48.0% (50)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
34.7% (49)
+25.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +25.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Hayes shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Hayes
Roy
Home
50.5% (200)
49.3% (345)
Away
53.4% (253)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Hayes
Roy
P1
58.8%
47.6%
P2
49.3%
47.1%
P3
48.0%
47.9%
OT
66.7%
75.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:27 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |