Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayes wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs Roy 48.9% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 67.9%
Defensive zone
Hayes 66.5%
Neutral zone
Hayes 67.7%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 67.6%
67.6%
32.4%
Hayes
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Hayes
Roy
Last 7: Hayes 2-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
3
Hayes
Roy
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Hayes
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Roy
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
49.5% (746)
-6.8%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
50.7% (75)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (31)
42.7% (110)
+2.5%
On power play, Roy has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Hayes is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Hayes shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Hayes
Roy
Home
43.5% (232)
47.7% (491)
Away
42.4% (375)
50.0% (440)
By Period
Hayes
Roy
P1
40.1%
51.1%
P2
44.8%
44.6%
P3
42.4%
50.9%
OT
80.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
44.3%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 11:28 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:37 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 3 | 07:46 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 2 | 10:14 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |