Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.4%). Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Roy 48.4% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 13-12 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 65.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 60.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Hayes
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
13
(25 meetings)
12
13
Hayes
Roy
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
8
6
Hayes
Roy
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
6
Hayes
Roy
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
48.7% (3,719)
-1.2%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
49.5% (283)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
45.5% (477)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Hayes
Roy
Home
48.1% (3,982)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Hayes
Roy
P1
47.5%
50.8%
P2
47.6%
46.3%
P3
47.9%
48.1%
OT
54.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:27 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 16:35 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 04:53 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 16:57 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 03:13 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 03:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 15:26 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 15:21 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 15:11 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 02:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 8, 2022 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |