Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Roy 47.2% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 80.7%
Defensive zone
Hayes 57.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 79.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Hayes
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Hayes
Roy
Last 9: Hayes 6-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
2
Hayes
Roy
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
47.5% (617)
+9.1%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
39.6% (53)
+17.4%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
46.4% (97)
+19.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Hayes
Roy
Home
58.0% (405)
47.2% (398)
Away
56.1% (433)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Hayes
Roy
P1
54.7%
48.6%
P2
55.7%
48.8%
P3
60.2%
43.9%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2024 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 16:35 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 04:53 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 17:13 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 16:57 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 3 | 03:13 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 03:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |