Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Poehling 50.8% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 70.6%
Defensive zone
Poehling 76.8%
Neutral zone
Poehling 55.5%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Hayes
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Hayes
Poehling
Last 8: Hayes 5-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Hayes
Poehling
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
1
Hayes
Poehling
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
52.6% (622)
-1.0%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
58.3% (12)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
39.8% (103)
+20.2%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Hayes shoots left. Poehling is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Home / Away
Hayes
Poehling
Home
50.5% (200)
53.2% (393)
Away
53.4% (253)
48.3% (344)
By Period
Hayes
Poehling
P1
58.8%
50.9%
P2
49.3%
56.2%
P3
48.0%
46.1%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.9%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
50.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:25 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:42 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |