Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.1%). Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Poehling 48.1% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Poehling leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 74.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 57.2%
Neutral zone
Hayes 54.1%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Hayes
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Hayes
Poehling
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
2
Hayes
Poehling
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
4
Hayes
Poehling
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
4
6
Hayes
Poehling
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
49.4% (2,726)
-1.9%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
51.6% (93)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
41.6% (623)
+3.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Hayes shoots left. Poehling is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,301).
Home / Away
Hayes
Poehling
Home
48.1% (3,982)
49.3% (1,688)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
46.9% (1,754)
By Period
Hayes
Poehling
P1
47.5%
50.9%
P2
47.6%
47.0%
P3
47.9%
46.9%
OT
54.1%
37.9%
Final 5 min
49.3%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:55 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:25 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:42 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:06 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 1 | 01:52 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 14:34 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 16:22 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 08:05 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 07:59 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 02:21 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 2 | 02:04 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 15:36 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 05:28 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Ryan Poehling |