Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs Stamkos 50.9% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 55.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 52.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 52.4%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Hayes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayes
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Hayes
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
49.3% (789)
-6.6%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
56.9% (181)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (31)
54.1% (98)
-8.9%
On power play, Stamkos has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayes is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Hayes shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Hayes
Stamkos
Home
43.5% (232)
52.0% (512)
Away
42.4% (375)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Hayes
Stamkos
P1
40.1%
42.1%
P2
44.8%
56.4%
P3
42.4%
53.7%
OT
80.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
44.3%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 06:47 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |