Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 69.9%
Defensive zone
Hayes 65.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 52.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 65.1%
65.1%
34.9%
Hayes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Hayes
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
49.3% (670)
+2.3%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
53.7% (121)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
33.3% (3)
+26.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Hayes shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Hayes
Stamkos
Home
50.5% (200)
54.0% (400)
Away
53.4% (253)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Hayes
Stamkos
P1
58.8%
48.6%
P2
49.3%
54.5%
P3
48.0%
45.4%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |