Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Stamkos 55.2% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 66.5%
Defensive zone
Hayes 74.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Hayes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hayes
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
55.9% (499)
+0.7%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
56.3% (126)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
58.3% (12)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Hayes
Stamkos
Home
58.0% (405)
55.3% (349)
Away
56.1% (433)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Hayes
Stamkos
P1
54.7%
57.0%
P2
55.7%
59.2%
P3
60.2%
51.5%
OT
50.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
58.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |