Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Stamkos 51.0% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 29-23 in 52 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 57.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 71.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 65.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 63.0%
63.0%
37.0%
Hayes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
29
(52 meetings)
23
29
Hayes
Stamkos
Last 10: Hayes 8-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
11
14
Hayes
Stamkos
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
4
10
Hayes
Stamkos
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
8
5
Hayes
Stamkos
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
50.4% (9,799)
-2.9%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
55.1% (1,725)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
49.7% (825)
-4.4%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (8,778).
Home / Away
Hayes
Stamkos
Home
48.1% (3,982)
52.7% (6,248)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
49.3% (6,127)
By Period
Hayes
Stamkos
P1
47.5%
49.1%
P2
47.6%
52.7%
P3
47.9%
50.9%
OT
54.1%
54.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 14, 2023 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 09:46 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 00:44 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 17:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 05:42 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 06:47 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 1 | 09:43 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 00:46 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |