Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +19.9% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 31.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-19.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 68.4%
Defensive zone
Hayes 68.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 75.0%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
Hayes
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Hayes
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Hayes
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
56.1% (342)
-24.2%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
53.3% (92)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
62.5% (8)
-62.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +62.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Hayes is 31.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Hayes shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Hayes
Stamkos
Home
30.6% (49)
53.4% (208)
Away
40.4% (57)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Hayes
Stamkos
P1
22.9%
55.6%
P2
40.0%
52.8%
P3
44.4%
59.1%
Final 5 min
30.4%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 17:40 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |