Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Frederic 46.8% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 53.3%
Defensive zone
Frederic 50.2%
Neutral zone
Frederic 52.7%
Result
Trent Frederic favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Hayes
Frederic
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Hayes
Frederic
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Frederic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frederic
0
1
Hayes
Frederic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Hayes
Frederic
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
1
Hayes
Frederic
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Frederic
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
46.3% (909)
+1.2%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
63.3% (30)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
35.5% (31)
+9.8%
On power play, Frederic has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frederic shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Hayes shoots left. Frederic is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (618).
Home / Away
Hayes
Frederic
Home
48.1% (3,982)
47.6% (485)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
45.4% (485)
By Period
Hayes
Frederic
P1
47.5%
41.9%
P2
47.6%
48.0%
P3
47.9%
49.8%
OT
54.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Frederic
58.0%▲
54.0%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:24 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:52 | Offensive | Trent Frederic |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 18:35 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 09:55 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 3 | 12:28 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 3 | 04:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 2 | 08:41 | Defensive | Trent Frederic |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 18:44 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 14, 2019 | 1 | 18:34 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 6, 2019 | 2 | 11:49 | Neutral | Trent Frederic |
| Feb 6, 2019 | 1 | 16:19 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |