Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +12.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayes wins 33.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 38.0% vs Johnson 48.8% (-12.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 58.5%
Defensive zone
Johnson 74.4%
Neutral zone
Johnson 73.0%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Hayes
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hayes
Johnson
Last 7: Hayes 4-3 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
2
Hayes
Johnson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
37.1% (642)
49.5% (828)
-12.4%
Power Play
32.1% (28)
54.9% (142)
-22.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (11)
36.8% (133)
-36.8%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +36.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Hayes is 33.2% vs right-shot opponents (262).
Hayes shoots left. Johnson is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (728).
Home / Away
Hayes
Johnson
Home
36.7% (354)
50.7% (564)
Away
35.8% (327)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Hayes
Johnson
P1
33.6%
51.2%
P2
38.3%
47.5%
P3
37.0%
48.4%
Final 5 min
39.0%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
36.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2014 | 3 | 04:54 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 2 | 11:04 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 3 | 12:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 10:17 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 1 | 17:34 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 17, 2014 | 3 | 07:35 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 17, 2014 | 2 | 14:08 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |