Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Johnson 45.7% (+12.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 60.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 61.1%
Neutral zone
Johnson 50.2%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 55.4%
55.4%
44.6%
Hayes
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayes
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Hayes
Johnson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
44.6% (285)
+12.0%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
46.7% (60)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
16.7% (6)
+49.0%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +49.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Johnson is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Hayes
Johnson
Home
58.0% (405)
50.8% (179)
Away
56.1% (433)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Hayes
Johnson
P1
54.7%
41.3%
P2
55.7%
41.8%
P3
60.2%
49.6%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 17:02 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |