Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Johnson 49.7% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 12-11 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnson 60.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 51.4%
Neutral zone
Johnson 52.2%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Hayes
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
11
(23 meetings)
12
11
Hayes
Johnson
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
1
5
Hayes
Johnson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
3
Hayes
Johnson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
6
3
Hayes
Johnson
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
49.8% (5,396)
-2.3%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
54.6% (885)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
42.3% (707)
+3.0%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Hayes
Johnson
Home
48.1% (3,982)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Hayes
Johnson
P1
47.5%
50.1%
P2
47.6%
50.6%
P3
47.9%
48.4%
OT
54.1%
42.5%
Final 5 min
49.3%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:16 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 1 | 17:02 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:36 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 3 | 02:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 04:41 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2018 | 2 | 11:16 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 3 | 00:44 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 8, 2018 | 1 | 03:14 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 3 | 19:30 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 1 | 10:53 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 1 | 07:12 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 6, 2017 | 1 | 01:31 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 3 | 14:36 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 30, 2016 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 3 | 04:54 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 1, 2014 | 2 | 11:04 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 3 | 12:49 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 26, 2014 | 2 | 10:17 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |