Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 49.5% vs Karlsson 54.9% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 76.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 50.0%
Neutral zone
Hayes 69.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 67.2%
67.2%
32.8%
Hayes
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Hayes
Karlsson
Last 8: Hayes 3-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
1
Hayes
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Hayes
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Hayes
Karlsson
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (557)
55.3% (897)
-6.8%
Power Play
53.3% (107)
61.1% (113)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
50.8% (132)
+7.5%
On power play, Karlsson has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Hayes shoots left. Karlsson is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (752).
Home / Away
Hayes
Karlsson
Home
50.8% (313)
58.6% (560)
Away
48.2% (363)
52.2% (582)
By Period
Hayes
Karlsson
P1
52.3%
55.8%
P2
47.7%
55.6%
P3
48.4%
55.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 15:36 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 10:15 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 01:58 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 1 | 11:19 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |