Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (57.0% vs 56.2%). Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Karlsson 55.6% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 74.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 55.3%
Neutral zone
Karlsson 53.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Hayes
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Hayes
Karlsson
Last 7: Hayes 5-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
2
Hayes
Karlsson
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
56.3% (739)
+0.3%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
58.6% (181)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
47.2% (53)
+18.5%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. Karlsson is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Hayes
Karlsson
Home
58.0% (405)
56.5% (462)
Away
56.1% (433)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Hayes
Karlsson
P1
54.7%
57.1%
P2
55.7%
55.2%
P3
60.2%
56.7%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2024 | 2 | 19:33 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2024 | 1 | 02:21 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 08:32 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 01:01 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 6, 2023 | 2 | 00:45 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 4, 2023 | 3 | 18:49 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |