Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Gourde 48.0% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 71.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 68.0%
Neutral zone
Hayes 73.0%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
Hayes
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Hayes
Gourde
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
2
Hayes
Gourde
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
2
Hayes
Gourde
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
48.0% (914)
+8.6%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
54.2% (48)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
43.9% (123)
+21.8%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. Gourde is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Hayes
Gourde
Home
58.0% (405)
50.2% (512)
Away
56.1% (433)
45.7% (573)
By Period
Hayes
Gourde
P1
54.7%
50.0%
P2
55.7%
45.3%
P3
60.2%
48.6%
OT
50.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 01:24 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 01:27 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 19:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:27 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 06:34 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:09 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |