Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Gourde 49.7% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 67.7%
Defensive zone
Gourde 58.5%
Neutral zone
Gourde 51.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Hayes
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Hayes
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Gourde
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
51.2% (469)
+0.4%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
42.9% (21)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
37.5% (48)
+22.5%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +22.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Hayes shoots left. Gourde is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (358).
Home / Away
Hayes
Gourde
Home
50.5% (200)
47.8% (301)
Away
53.4% (253)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Hayes
Gourde
P1
58.8%
47.3%
P2
49.3%
53.4%
P3
48.0%
48.6%
OT
66.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.9%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 05:24 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:07 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:30 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |