Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Eller wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 52.9% vs Duchene 50.3% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 59.6%
Defensive zone
Duchene 58.0%
Neutral zone
Duchene 61.4%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Eller
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Eller
Duchene
Last 7: Eller 2-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Eller
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
2
1
Eller
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Eller
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.3% (803)
49.4% (933)
+3.9%
Power Play
55.8% (86)
58.7% (104)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (90)
47.6% (21)
+2.4%
On even strength, Eller has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Eller is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Eller shoots left. Duchene is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (656).
Home / Away
Eller
Duchene
Home
52.8% (525)
51.9% (534)
Away
53.7% (454)
48.7% (524)
By Period
Eller
Duchene
P1
53.9%
51.0%
P2
54.8%
48.8%
P3
50.9%
50.6%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
51.2%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2013 | 3 | 11:31 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 3 | 08:55 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 3 | 04:16 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 2, 2013 | 1 | 04:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |